Are Used Car Prices Declining or is it the Calm Before the Storm?

In short, used car prices were buoyed by a shortage of new cars. Supply chain issues, semi-conductor shortages, Covid 19 and economic circumstances made new car supplies weaker. Buyers were waiting up to 18 months for a hybrid Rav 4, and other models were near this long lead time.

2023 changed the landscape as tourists, students, and migrants came back in droves. Over a million new cars found homes, and 2 million used cars changed hands.

There are some differences, according to Autograb, between the new and used markets. New car sales are dominated by SUVs and utes whereas used car sales see more passenger cars sold. The retained value of a car fell from 75.5% to 67%, and the days needed to move the used car on has increase by 10 days, to 50.9 days on average.

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ABOVE: New and used cars, including EVs. Are used car prices falling?

Electric vehicles are even more volatile.

EVs take even longer to sell, with the used prices falling by 15.6% for those under 2 years old, and between 2 and 4 years old, prices are 23.4% lower. EVs take around 75 days to sell in the used market, making the electric vehicle segment the interesting one to watch.

Several factors impacted the used price of EVs.

A concerted anti-EV campaign made buyers overly cautious of used EVs, despite the average 8 year battery warranty. Our recent review of the GWM Ora showed what you can get for under 40k. Why buy a 2^nd hand EV when you can get a new one?

News yesterday that Evergrande, a giant Chinese construction company, had gone into liquidation, could have ramifications beyond Asia. As very large businesses fail, the wider economy becomes nervous. Debt saddled Evergrande with a $300Billion issue, the ABC reported. The debt couldn’t be restructured, and a Hong Kong court ordered the curtain be brought down. The company had creditors outside China that are unlikely to be satisfied. Troubles started in the Chinese market when the government tightened regulation around property speculation, and this is not the first developer to feel the pain. Could Chinese car makers be in the same position? Moreover, could this be the sign of wider ill health in the Chinese economy?

China is, by far, the worlds biggest producer of cars and car parts. Although used car prices are falling now, could the economic Ponzi scheme make future prices even more volatile?

Watch this space.