July 2026 Sees Toyota Fall as China Rises


Australia bought more new cars in July than in any July on record, a third of them came out of Chinese factories, and Toyota finished on top but is 27,150 sales down on this time last year.

Toyota sold 115,550 cars in the first seven months of 2026 and holds 15.6% of the Australian market. A year ago it had 142,700 and 20.0%. That is a fifth of the business gone in twelve months, from a market that barely moved.

The Japanese Brands Are Going Backwards Together

Every Japanese brand except Honda is going backwards, and not by small amounts. Isuzu Ute fell 28.9% in July alone.

BrandYTD 2026YTD 2025Change
Toyota115,550142,700-19.0%
Mazda46,96056,394-16.7%
Mitsubishi27,86438,362-27.4%
Isuzu Ute23,30725,869-9.9%
Subaru17,09823,174-26.2%
Nissan15,44523,286-33.7%
Honda9,4709,226+2.6%
Suzuki7,8729,653-18.5%
Lexus7,3528,685-15.3%
Japanese brands, year to date 2026

June before it was the strongest month Australia has ever had. It isn’t that the buyers weren’t there, it is just that they went somewhere else.


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ABOVE: The 2026 VFACTS

The Europeans Are Further Down the Same Road

Stellantis is the most precarious case because two of its brands stopped trading here, while the head office says otherwise. Citroen sold three cars in Australia all year and gave up on passenger models. Fiat suspended imports of the 500e and the Abarth 500e, the only two passenger cars it had, and sold eleven in July for 155 across the year. The only Fiat moving in any number now is a van. Inchcape dropped Peugeot as its distributor, leaving it on 475 sales against 844 a year ago. Jeep is down 69.7% to 357 cars and Alfa Romeo has 150.

Stellantis claims Fiat is not leaving permanently and goes on to say Peugeot has a strong future in Australia, and that it has up to a year to appoint a new importer or bring the brand in-house. Given Peugeot’s sinking figures that seems highly unlikely. So Peugeot has no distributor and Fiat has nothing left to import, which leaves both sets of owners relying on a parent company that says it is staying to keep parts and warranty running. Between them they sold a miserable 630 cars this year, which the Model Y does in four days.

Volkswagen is down 18.9% to 13,933, so this is not confined to the small players.

BrandYTD 2026Change
BMW14,097-12.8%
Volkswagen13,933-18.9%
Mercedes-Benz12,810-3.8%
Audi6,972-14.4%
Land Rover4,333-15.1%
MINI3,153-5.3%
Renault2,709-5.6%
Porsche2,414-29.1%
Skoda2,398-3.4%
Cupra1,211-31.0%
Peugeot475-43.7%
Jaguar7-98.2%
European brands, year to date 2026

The only exceptions are Bentley, up 22.1% on 83 cars, and Volvo, flat at 4,129 and building almost everything it sells here in China.

Volkswagen CEO Thomas Schäfer said “the roof is on fire” during an online internal meeting with more than 2,000 senior managers in mid-July 2023. He used the phrase to warn that costs were running too high and that “all is at stake” for the automaker. Things are not well in the EU.

Europe’s answer is a wall. The EU has taxed Chinese battery electrics since October 2024, 27% all up for a BYD and 45.3% for anything from SAIC, and in June it finished preparing the same treatment for plug-in hybrids after Chinese makers switched to shipping those instead. Australia charges nothing at all. Our cars come in duty-free under the free trade agreement, which is most of the reason the two markets look nothing alike.

Where Toyota’s Volume Went

BYD sold 60,192 cars this year against 27,962 this time in 2025, which lifts it to second ahead of Ford, Kia, Mazda and Hyundai. Its gain of 32,230 cars is larger than Toyota’s loss. In June it came within 243 sales of beating Toyota outright for the month, 18,881 against 19,124.

The rest of the Chinese field is doing the same but at smaller scale. Chery is up 71.3% for the year to 29,579 and GWM is on 34,877. Geely went from 2,335 to 14,655, Zeekr from 522 to 7,950 and Omoda Jaecoo from 1,124 to 10,943. Denza did not exist here twelve months ago and has 2,693. GAC opened here in July with 1,008 sales in its first month, which is more than Peugeot, Fiat and Citroen managed between them all year.

BrandYTD 2026YTD 2025Change
Toyota115,550142,700-19.0%
BYD60,19227,962+115.3%
Ford48,69654,579-10.8%
Kia48,39948,152+0.5%
Mazda46,96056,394-16.7%
Hyundai45,58145,635-0.1%
GWM34,87729,910+16.6%
Chery29,57917,272+71.3%
Tesla28,366n/an/a
Mitsubishi27,86438,362-27.4%
Top 10 brands, year to date 2026
BrandJuly 2026
Toyota20,409
BYD7,857
Kia6,553
Mazda6,458
Ford6,400
Hyundai5,991
Tesla4,778
Chery4,615
GWM4,518
MG4,284
Top 10 brands, July 2026

Tesla was the seventh biggest seller in the country in July on one model, with the Model 3 contributing 134 of the 4,778 total. Mitsubishi does not make the monthly ten at all on 3,062, and Geely would take tenth on 3,685 if the list ran on the month rather than the year.

China Is Now Australia’s Biggest Source of New Cars

China supplied 33,634 of the cars sold in Australia in July, which makes it the biggest single source of new vehicles in the country, ahead of Japan on 26,292, Thailand on 17,604 and Korea on 11,622. Across the year China accounts for 208,785 cars against Japan’s 170,722, and the two are moving in opposite directions, China up 71.4% and Japan down 21.7%.

Apart from the Chinese brands, which build in China as a matter of course, a number of other makers now source individual models there too.

BrandModels built in China
VolvoEverything except the XC90, the EX30 included
TeslaModel 3 and Model Y, from Shanghai
PolestarThe entire range
MiniCooper Electric and Aceman
KiaEV5
CupraTavascan
HyundaiElexio
LotusEletre and Emeya
Non-Chinese brands sourcing Australian stock from Chinese plants

38,555 of the cars sold in July came out of China, 35.5% of the month, and 238,496 of the 740,160 sold this year, or 32.2%.

That makes the argument about Chinese cars a strange one to hold, given the best selling vehicle in the country in May and June was a Tesla built in Shanghai.

Battery Electrics Passed a Fifth of the Market and Stayed There

23,510 battery electric vehicles were sold in July, 21.7% of everything sold. June was the same, which makes two consecutive months above one in five. For the year it stands at 127,244, or 17.3%.

The Tesla Model Y sold 4,644 in July and finished third among all vehicles sold, behind the RAV4 and the HiLux and ahead of the Ranger. In June it sold 8,072.

ModelJuly 2026
Toyota RAV45,564
Toyota HiLux4,721
Tesla Model Y4,644
Ford Ranger4,042
BYD Sealion 72,548
Chery Tiggo 42,156
Hyundai Kona2,096
Toyota Prado2,082
Geely EX52,034
Zeekr 7X1,892
Top 10 models, July 2026

The Mazda CX-5 falls off the bottom of that list on 1,836.

The FCAI on Charging

Tony Weber, the FCAI’s chief executive, said there is a risk that the rapid increase in electric vehicle uptake in 2026 will outpace the supply of public charging infrastructure, that governments and the private sector need to work together so the network meets demand, particularly in regional areas and for motorists who cannot charge at home, and that accessible, dependable charging will be critical to maintaining consumer confidence.

While every word of that is correct, the FCAI spent 2024 campaigning against the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard, the policy written to put this many electric cars into this market. It argued the transition was being pushed faster than buyers wanted. The dispute cost it two member brands, Tesla and Polestar, which is why the best selling car in the country in June does not appear in its own report. The body that said the change was being forced now says the change is outrunning the infrastructure.

Is this the end for Legacy Brands

The brands that argued for a slower, multi-technology transition are the brands losing volume.

BYD sells electric cars people can afford and is now second on the sales chart, with the rest of that field climbing behind it. Every electric Subaru sold here is a rebadged Toyota. Toyota’s own July was carried by a RAV4 that sold 5,564 units.

Toyota will finish 2026 as Australia’s biggest seller, a place it has held for many years but one that is now looking less assured.

Sources: FCAI VFACTS, Electric Vehicle Council.

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Written by Alan Zurvas

Alan Zurvas is the founder and editor of Gay Car Boys, Australia's leading LGBTQI+ automotive publication. Before launching GCB in 2008, Alan's automotive writing was published in SameSame.com.au and the Star Observer. With over 16 years of hands-on car reviewing experience, Alan brings an honest, irreverent voice to every review — championing value and innovation over brand loyalty.


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